Is Delhi Elections a Defeat for Prime Minister Modi?
It is undoubtedly true that the election results of Delhi assembly elections 2015 came as a shock for BJP and PM Narendra Modi, though do you really think it is against him? Is Delhi elections a defeat for Prime Minister Modi?
Read on this blog post of mine to understand the real situation at the ground and the meaning of the huge defeat for Bhartiya Janta Party. Does it have any impact on the face of Narendra Modi?
Is Delhi Elections a Defeat for Prime Minister Modi?
Delhi Elections 2015
Delhi Elections 2015
Let me first tell you all that after remaining for president rule for a long time, finally Delhi went for elections on 7th February 2015 in all 70 constituencies and the results of the assembly elections came yesterday. A few months back only when India went for Loksabha elections 2014, Delhi gave all the 7 constituencies to BJP, that time BJP lead to around 60 constituencies of Delhi Assembly.
Considering the same along with the victories which BJP somehow get in the assembly elections of states like Maharashtra, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, and very recently in Jharkhand, BJP were somehow convinced that they will easily win the Delhi elections. At least they will remain in the same state of the single largest party as they were after Delhi elections 2013.
It was 10th of February 2015 when the results of Delhi elections 2015 came and it was like a blast for BJP. Unlike any opinion poll, exit poll and any other surveys and predictions made for Delhi Assembly Elections 2015, the result came as a big shock for BJP.
The results of the Delhi elections 2015 were a clean sweep for Aam Aadmi Party and its leader Arvind Kejriwal. They won 67 seats out of the 70 seats of Delhi Assembly. Other than the 1989 Sikkim Assembly elections in which Sikkim Sangram Parishad won all the 32 seats of the Sikkim Assembly, I did not ever heard any such huge victory by any political parties in state assembly elections.
Thus BJP which won the 7 Parliamentary constituencies of Delhi a few months back is now restricted to only 3 seats in Assembly elections. Although the major setback is for the oldest political party of India came from this assembly election results. Indian National Congress party has 0 members in Delhi Assembly now. Can you remember that till November 2013 they had around 15 continuous years of rule in Delhi assembly?
Is It A Defeat for Prime Minister Modi?
Is It A Defeat for Prime Minister Modi?
Do you too think so as US and some other international and national media houses are saying that this defeat is of Prime Minister Modi?
In first instance it seems so. Reason being the fact is that BJP were too dependent on one face and so far it was clear that no one will be able to defeat that face of them, and it was the face of the Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi.
Although BJP says that it is not the defeat of the PM Modi in general; as these elections were for the state assembly and not for the prime ministerial post. They also claims that since media did not considered other assembly elections held before Delhi elections as the victory of the PM Modi and his policies, so similarly you cannot consider Delhi elections as a referendum for the PM and team’s work.
I do agree with these statements somewhat, but I am also against these a bit. Reason being, somehow people will claim that an elections and its mandate are always reflective of the mood and sentiment of the central government. Especially when it was choosing the government for Delhi elections, which is the capital of India, all eyes were there on the same.
Although if you know me, you are aware that I am a hardcore Narendra Modi supporter; and if you know my daughter, she is also a big fan of him, as my wife too. My daughter starts telling Modi jee, Modi jee, whenever she sees him on television. Though the point is that, I felt bad about such a huge defeat, as I was a Modi and BJP supporter, but still is this defeat is the real defeat or end of road for BJP?
I guess no, when you see the reality you will realize it. Here are some reasons why BJP had to face this huge defeat in Delhi elections?
Anti-BJP vote Polarization
Anti-BJP vote Polarization
A few months back when Lok Sabha elections were going on, BJP took the benefits of Anti-UPA or say Anti-Congress vote throughout the nation. Though in this elections all anti-BJP vote went to AAP, which converted into a huge and landslide victory for them.
Negative sentiments against BJP were not that much, as you analyze from the Delhi elections 2013 you will find that they lost around 1% of vote only, though the vote loss faced by Congress and parties like BSP, went directly to AAP and converted this huge victory.
Late in Conducting Elections
Late in Conducting Elections
Although it was considered as a plus point for BJP, but somehow the sentiment in people is that they made really late by postponing the elections for so long. They could have gone for it a few months after Parliamentary elections 2014 or with the same too, and they would have the benefits.
The time gap which they gave actually gave the chance to Arvind Kejriwal to come into the heart of the common people of Delhi.
Strategy by AAP
Strategy by AAP
Another reason for the defeat of BJP in Delhi elections was the clear strategy made by AAP. They realized one thing, it is of no use to run behind the BJP supporters, and hence they went for the anti-BJP supporters and tried pulling them towards. It was a major blow for BJP.
CM Candidate
CM Candidate
Earlier BJP was keen of announcing no CM candidate for this election, but later on they decided to bring Kiran Bedi as the CM candidate. This decision was somehow heartbreaking for many dedicated party workers. Somehow this too impacted into the defeat of BJP in Delhi elections.
Those were some of the reasons why the ruling party of the nation had to face a huge defeat at the capital city of India. Although I strongly feel that these are not at all a negative result for Prime Minister Modi, though he had to take lessons from these things.
He will have to understand the fact that the majority of Indians have given him votes to change the system, and not for being the leader who cannot do anything to change the system. On the other hand when you have huge expectations of people behind you, it is somehow hard to fulfill all those. Though I am sure Modi jee will take the positive lessons from this defeat and will bring forward the agenda of development throughout the nation.
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alok
Hi friends, my name is Alok Vats, and I am the owner of this website I News India. From last six years I am trying to build this website, I started this website from scratch and then with the help of my friends like Pooja, Prachi, and Divya I published many articles over here. Recently Harshita, Tanmay and Aayushi too joined my website, and am really glad to share some articles written by them over here. I am sure many of you would love the same. These days I am managing the site with myself only and the focus is to share blogs on the topics like Blogging Tips, Self Improvement, SEO, and all other things which can make you to enhance your life.
I agree Alok. I think it was mostly the strategy which went wrong. The CM candidate announcement was way too late. Although people had a great association with Kiran Bedi as the first IPS and her contributions, somehow I guess it needed more time for that thought to settle in. And the strategy by AAP was pretty smart. Of course I can say this only post mortem cos I really hated their negative strategy in pointing out the mistakes of every opponent. Although it is not my idea of politics, somehow that seems to work apparently. I guess politics is a lot more complicated than I thought 🙂
Anything can work buddy, you never know what can work in which way in India. Honestly one thing which gave Arvind Kejriwal the much needed support back was his going to door to door and accepting the mistake which he made by quitting Delhi last time. The apologies worked quite well…
I agree Alok. Specially with the Kiran Bedi point .
Thank you so much Kokila, it is actually true. When someone is dedicating his whole life to party for around 25-30 years and then someone from out side came as the leader, they will obviously feel bad about it. I guess the parties should make a rule that no one will be able to get any benefits from party unless and until they won’t work for party for at least 4-5 years.
There are so many reasons in this election of delhi of defeat of BJP but agree with u that Kiran bedi’s entry was one of the major reason. How can we expect that local worker will work and will dedicate for that person who is being forced and bring via parachute.
Absolutely correct Yogi jee. Thanks for sharing your opinion with us. 🙂
I agree with you Alok, and I would like to add that over-confidence and an insouciant attitude towards voters also played vital roles. However, I hope BJP will learn from this disaster and will act accordingly.
AAP has promised a hell lot of things to the Delhiites…let’s see what they can do and how much…
Thank you so much Maniparna, you are absolutely correct. I am also hopeful that BJP will take lessons from it and will go ahead with caution now. As far as the promises of AAP is concerned, hope so they can be able to fulfill it.
The arrogance and overconfidence of BJP caused them a defeat. Due to overconfidence they took steps without discussing its outcome fielding Kiran Bedi was one of them. It is a defeat of Mr Modi because he was asking vote for himself by saying that same party government at both level is more beneficial for the state.
Here is my analysis of this result Triumph of Democracy
Hey Cifar, do you think the central government which has the 282 members in Parliament can be defeated based on the results on a small state which has only 7 representatives out of those 282?
Have gone through your post, and it is a great analysis. Thank you for sharing your opinion with us.
Strategies may have gone wrong. But people see through and beyond strategies esp in a place like Delhi. There were many things that Modi as well as organisations associated did wrongly.
You are right Matheikal sir 🙂
Def. it has nothing to do with Modi. Had delhi elections happened immediately after kejriwal resigned, AAP would have won clear majority then also. This much large I am not sure but at least clear majority. You see whatever was being portrayed to rest of the nation, Delhi knew that AAP did try to implement good rule in 49 days and its debacle was more due to shrewd and cunning game by seasoned politicians which AAP let itself being played upon due to inexperience. From the start BJP and Congress were afraid of rise of an honest leader Kejriwal and hence they made him look like fool and he in turn got swayed away by his emotions. Whole country looked down upon him as we were served with negative news and fabricated news with most of the media corrupted.. But Delhi was the ranbhoomi that was the real witness of what really was happening. They chose BJP in center not because they started hating AAP but just like rest of the nation they wanted clear majority govt. Now lets wait and watch what wonders AAP carries.. If it performs than we have an honest young leader for next general elections, if it doesn’t we have nothing to lose..
You are absolutely correct Roohi. You know what, I have seen this trend of people that they don’t want to give mandate for a hung assembly. That’s why they gave full majority to BJP in center and AK in Delhi.
Alok, very nice post. One should take victory/defeat graciously. The way Shahnawaj husain and other senior party leaders responded (in a soft manner and accepted the defeat) after the results were out, if they have maintained the same level of softness backed by issue based pointers (instead of bashing), would have been a different story. I also think that MCD has played a major role in BJP defeat as they have been ruling it on all three zones and they never did anything for which they can ask for vote in election. Delhi voters were aware of this.
Nevertheless, I believe BJP has got their lesson early as it’s only 9 months in center and they still have lot of time left to strategies the days ahead.
Oh yes Vishal, you said it right. This is the reason which differentiates BJP from any other parties of India. BTW thanks for pointing out yet another reason which I forget to mention in my blog, and it was of the corruption at the ground level, i.e. at MCD. While BJP is leading the MCD since so long, they are failed to work prominently, which should be appreciated by common people, and this came as a negative factor for them in this election. Thank you Vishal for your valuable comment.
Agree with all the points you write about. In your point about campaigning strategy, I would like to add two points: One, lack of a clear poll manifesto; and two, negative campaigning personally targeting Kejriwal. Both these backfired against the BJP strongly. Not having any poll manifesto gives voters an impression that they are being taken for granted. It’s the height of complacency. Most of BJP’s campaigning was focused heavily on Kejriwal, which runs counter to logic… you should focus on your own party and not give undue weightage to the opponent! But every day, in the newspapers, there was at least one half page cartoon-ad making fun of Kejriwal with things like, “main apne bachchon ki jhooti kasam khaata hoon, aur upar se benaam companies ke paisa bhi khaata hoon”. <– Very negative campaigning! These ads started running in the last 7-10 days of campaigning but I'm sure some voters were definitely put off all the more by such tactics. I suppose the learning for ALL parties is only this: You can't take voters for granted.
Also, Delhi's voters have shown that the public *can* differentiate between Central and State Governments, because different things are at stake in both kind of elections. That's actually the hallmark of an intelligent and well-functioning federal democracy.
Yup lack of poll manifesto was then compromised with vision document, though the mistake made in vision document was also a hard blow for BJP. You are absolutely right Ami, that you cannot take voters for granted. Thanks for pointing out some mistakes made by BJP in Delhi elections 🙂
Alok Bhai Sahab Narendra Modi himself and Kiran Bedi were also not liked by the public. Modi is well known for his dictatorship, spoiling RTI in Gujarat and violating laws. Kiran Bedi did nothing. I remember an interview on DD Channel while she was asked “do you know cooking”, she replied yes but I donot have time for these nonsense things.
Hmm, to an extent you are true Sampat Kumari jee. During the loksabha elections, the opposition votes spread out and give benefits to Modi jee, but this time the opposite happened. You are also correct Sampat jee, that some of the silly comments made by Kiran Bedi also went against BJP.
As I see, Alok, it’s definitely Modi’s defeat. A major part is played by his 9 lakh made in Uk Hosni Mubarak style suit. The last nail was put by his most trusted companion, Amit Bhai Shah, who declared all his campaign statements as “Jhoomla” turning Bhartiya Janta Party into Bhartiya Jhoomla Party. AK lost Lok Sabha seats due to his negative campaign and same is the reason for Modi’s fall in Delhi State Assembly. AK ka bhav badhane me Modi ka bahut yogdan hai. Agar Modi AK ko bhav nahi diye hote to aaj AK ko itna bhav nahi milta. It’s cent per cent Modi’s defeat.
You are also a bit right Ravish brother, as the suit and Joomla, were the two things which went against the public sentiment and caused negative sentiment for BJP in Delhi.
Certainly, as you said strategies have gone wrong…yes, they have. It becomes more clear as I read your post. But somewhere the narcissist coat act and Ghar wapsi policies has made this possible as well.
Ghar wapsi, was actually the major blow for Modi government. You are absolutely correct Namrata that these things went against Modi led BJP government. Thanks Namrata for sharing your opinion with us.
Excellent points! but I am always with NAMO
Even I too Seeraj. Thank you so much for your comment over here 🙂