What Impact Does Exit Poll Results will have?

We know that the ninth and the last phase of the general elections 2014 (for 16th Lok Sabha) concluded yesterday evening only. I already shared one blog post on dance of democracy in India, in which I mentioned about the different options available to us for the Prime Ministerial candidates of India.

Once the election was over yesterday, one more competition got started, and it was between the different news channels available out here. They all started showing their own exit poll results, which made the evening as an evening comprised of different data.

One thing is quite clear in these exit polls, many of them are predicting the direct edge to the BJP led NDA. As far as the winners are concerned, if you go by the exit poll results, you will find them as Mamta Banerjee, Jayalalitha, C. S. Rao, other than Narendra Modi.

On losers side you can count on the names of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, etc. But undoubtedly the real losers of the general elections are Rahul Gandhi, Nitish Kumar and our very own Arvind Kejriwal.

Let me first give you all a rough idea of a few exit polls results:

As predicted by ABP News – Nielsen

As predicted by India TV – C Voter

I am now merging AAP into the Other’s category as they are not doing any great work in this election so that we can consider them as the player which can give any competition to the top two national parties of India.

As predicted by Times Now – ORG

As predicted by India Today – CICERO (They predicted 261-283 seats for NDA, 110-120 for UPA, and 150-162 for Other’s)

Here is the clubbed picture of the exit poll results:

So basically all the exit polls clearly indicated the victory of NDA in this election. Basically all news channels gave around 249 to 354 seats for NDA, while 70 to 148 seats to UPA and 146 to 181 seats to other’s which includes the parties like Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Janta Dal United, Rashtriya Janta Dal, Trinamool Congress, Left Fronts, and all other regional parties which were neither supporting Congress nor BJP in this elections. Please note that it also consist our very own Aam Aadmi Party.

 What Impact Does Exit Poll Results will have?

Let us now discuss about the impacts which this exit poll results will have:

 Biggest Defeat of Indian National Congress

No matter how hard the leaders of Congress party try to defend their vice president Rahul Gandhi, but it is quite clear now that INC now need someone else to lead the party. Don’t you think that Rahul Gandhi seriously lacks the leadership quality?

If the results came as the predicted one, it will be the biggest defeat of the Indian National Congress in the history of India. Undoubtedly Rahul Gandhi should take the responsibility of the same, which I doubt he will.

As far as the strategy of Congress party is concerned, they are still hoping that like the exit polls of 2004 and 2009, this time also results will differ from predictions.

On the other hand they also know that if by any chance BJP and NDA fell short of the magical numbers of 272 they will get united with all other parties and can form government in the name of secularism.

So this is the reason why they are denying that these exit polls will have any truth in them.

 Fall of Aam Aadmi Party

If these exit polls became true on 16th of May 2014, it will be a tight slap for one person and he is Arvind Kejriwal. When he decided to form his own party that time the agenda was not only limited to getting the Jan Lokpal. The idea was to reform the election system and the politics of India.

Later on when they fight their first elections, the agenda was still not only limited to forming the Jan Lokpal, but they came up with all the issues related with the life of any common men.

Normally people have issues with things like water, electricity, etc. which was being taken up by AAP in such a manner that people started following them. Then again AAP also cached some benefits from the incidents like Delhi Rape Case, and statements given by then CM Sheila Dixit against common people, inflation, etc.

Issues like women security, inflation; rising prices of common utilities etc. irritated common people and AAP take benefit from all this. They reached to a situation in which they could have at least given support to BJP to form government and follow what they promised to people, but then they rejected the idea and took support from Congress and formed government.

It is undoubtedly true that during their 49 days of government they were winning more and more hearts, but on a fine evening Arvind Kejriwal and team decided to resign, just to gain sympathy of public. They thought that public will understand that Congress and BJP are not allowing them to pass Jan Lokpal, though they did not think that Jan Lokpal was not the primary things for public.

Their all time drama came into role once again when the AAP boss decided to challenge Narendra Modi himself in general elections. It was a decision which almost irritated majority of their supporters as when the Delhi assembly elections was going on, normal concept out here was that “Lets choose Kejriwal for Assembly elections, and NaMo (Narendra Modi) for General Elections”.

If this exit poll is going to be true on 16th of May then it will be the complete downfall of AAP. They obviously were the party of honest guys, I do accept this fact; but they don’t have the will to change things as per the public wants. Let some other Arvind Kejriwal come into our life and do another revolution to change those things which are still alive. We will wait for the same, but for the moment let Narendra Modi do the work.

 Fall of Nitish Kumar

The biggest mistake ever made by Nitish Kumar was to break the alliance with BJP. If this exit poll which is predicting around 2 to 5 seats to his party will be going to true then it will be a tight slap to Nitish Kumar from the common people of Bihar state.

He thought that he can get the votes from Muslims and some OBC caste on the basis of the name of opposing Modi, and he will get the votes from Hindus on the name of development. This will surely make him the super power in Bihar and center as well.

But unfortunately none of his cards work in this election. I myself visited Bihar during the election time and realized the sentiment against Nitish Kumar. Undoubtedly people do believe that you developed Bihar, but then you were not alone Mr. Nitish Kumar.

You were with BJP, which helped you on each and every steps of your growth as the CM of Bihar. But then you rejected them on the name of one of the most popular leaders of BJP, how can BJP supporters will be able to accept this fact? This is the reason why your party will reach to the bottom on 16th, if this exit polls will come into reality.

 Dependency on Regional Parties

There was a time when we were thinking that coalition governments are now the reality of our politics. Our government will have to rely on different small-small parties to take any decisions.

But this exit poll proved that people are now fed up of this coalition government and have most probably given the votes in favor of a strong government, which can take decisions on their own.

Let’s hope that these exit polls will come into reality on 16th of May 2014. We will do share the actual results with its impact on that particular day as well.

Meanwhile you can also participate in one of the poll conducted by me for knowing who you believe to be the winner on that particular day: